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Oliver Lamb identifies the different stages of lockdown across the world; while some countries are easing measures, there are fears that the worst is yet to come for others. As children in some European countries have been able to return to school, there are increasing concerns surrounding the infamous R0 figure.
On Sunday 10 May, President Bolsonaro of Brazil jet-skied on Paranoá Lake, stopping off halfway through to enjoy a floating barbecue. The same day, Brazil’s confirmed death toll from coronavirus reached 10,000. Bolsonaro’s dismissive attitude towards the virus and the associated lockdowns are causing outrage in the country that is now the hardest-hit outside Europe and North America. On Friday Brazil reported 15,000 new cases and over 800 deaths.
Brazil now has 222,877 cases and over 15,000 deaths. 45 other countries have 10,000 or more confirmed cases. At the beginning of Saturday 9 May the global case count stood at 4,009,000 with 276,000 deaths. Seven days later those figures had risen to 4,621,000 and 308,000. The true numbers are bound to be higher*
Europeans are returning to shops, restaurants and schools, but at a distance and amid an atmosphere of fear. France began to ease its lockdown on 11 May, with nurseries, primary schools and most businesses allowed to reopen; on the same day, Belgium, Holland, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Greece relaxed restrictions. Some countries had already eased their lockdowns, and more plan to do so. Social distancing remains in force, however. Shoppers must keep their distance, and many governments recommend or require the wearing of masks. Schoolchildren must wash their hands regularly. Images emerged from France of small children playing – while sitting in individual chalk squares on the playground.
Nevertheless, easing of lockdowns must come at the expense of public health. Germany’s R0 has risen back above the crucial value of 1 since restrictions were relaxed, meaning that the spread of the disease may be accelerating. However, epidemiological experts are not yet concerned. They say that with the small number of active cases in the country, the R0 would have to rise significantly above 1 – perhaps 1.2 or 1.3 – for the number of new infections to become unmanageable.
Even so, the return to work and school alarms many. For example, teaching unions in the UK, where some primary-age children will return to school from 1 June, fear for the safety of staff and children and worry that schools may drive a resurgence of the virus in wider society. They also question the rationale behind starting with younger children who will struggle to maintain social distancing.
Others reply that sending youngsters back first enables parents to return to work, whilst older children and teenagers can look after themselves. In addition, governments need to balance public health with the educational interests of the children themselves, many of whom are struggling with home learning. Children from poorer households and without internet are finding things even harder. On top of this there is scientific uncertainty over whether young children can pass on the virus, if indeed they can contract it at all. These are just some of the considerations which governments must assess and balance as they chart a path out of lockdown.
Meanwhile, Africa has been relatively less affected. Experts had expected the continent and its weak healthcare systems to be devastated: a United Nations report forecast in April that up to 3.3 million Africans could die. Last week, however, the World Health Organization predicted between 83,000 and 190,000 deaths in the coming year. So far over 2500 deaths have been registered. Earlier explanations for the apparently low toll pointed to a lack of testing, but each day that passes without reports of an outbreak of respiratory disease renders this theory more unlikely. The low case and death numbers may be attributable to the fact that African countries, learning from Europe’s experience, locked down before the virus gained a foothold on their shores; it may be because of their experience fighting other infectious diseases like HIV and tuberculosis; it may be because their low population densities relative to richer countries hindered the virus’s spread; or it may be because Africans tend to be younger and less fat than Westerners. Alternatively, it may be that the long-feared catastrophe is simply yet to arrive.
Indeed, the pandemic seems to have struck Yemen, which an earlier edition of this update identified as being especially vulnerable. The impoverished and war-torn nation has 106 confirmed cases and fifteen deaths, but reports suggest that hundreds have already died in the city of Aden. The charity Save the Children says that people are going vainly from hospital to hospital. Some doctors, lacking protective equipment, are refusing to go to work.
In China, the city of Shulan was locked down on Monday, after fourteen cases appeared there. They were all traced to a woman with no recent travel history or known contact with an infected person. Hundreds of miles away in Wuhan, where the virus originated, six new cases were detected over the weekend, the first since the city’s 76-day lockdown ended on 8 April. The affected district will be locked down until all residents are tested. The Chinese government is determined to clamp down hard on any new clusters to avoid another large-scale outbreak.
As if to prove their resolve, the authorities in Wuhan announced on Tuesday a plan to test all eleven million residents within weeks. Some doubt whether this is necessary or even logistically feasible. Nevertheless, the government will stop at nothing to stay on top of the virus – and to make sure the world knows about it.
*statistics taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
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