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Oliver Lamb explores the places, and people, worst affected by coronavirus. This article observes the potential geopolitical tactics of global superpowers, and discusses how some countries feel neglected. While life is beginning to resemble normality in cities such as Wuhan, the death toll continues to soar in countries such as the UK and USA.
At ten o’clock in Beijing, on Saturday the 4th of April, China observed three minutes of silence in memory of the 3,300 Chinese ‘martyrs’ who have fallen victim to COVID-19. Flags across the country flew at half-mast throughout the day; all entertainment was suspended. For residents of Wuhan, the origin of the virus, the occasion was particularly poignant, as the city had witnessed the loss of 2500 lives
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Yet, four days later, the city saw scenes of celebration as its quarantine was lifted. For 76 days, residents had been strictly confined to their homes. From now, if they are healthy and have not been in contact with an infected person, they will be able to leave their houses. Along embankments and bridges, the lifting of the lockdown was marked by flag waving, along with chants and renditions of the Chinese national anthem. Silent, empty roads were once again filled with the sounds of traffic, and, within hours, an estimated 65,000 had left the city by train or plane.
The rest of the world watches apprehensively for a resurgence of the disease. A second wave in Wuhan means that lockdowns in other countries may have to last longer than hoped. If, on the other hand, the virus has truly been defeated, then beleaguered citizens across the globe can take comfort that their sacrifices will yield fruit sooner rather than later.
There is still no prospect of lockdowns being fully lifted, as the pandemic continues to spread. At the beginning of Saturday the 5th of April, global confirmed cases of coronavirus stood at 1,169,2100 with 63,437 deaths. Less than a week later, those figures had risen to nearly 1,699,000 and over 102,000. The United States is, in absolute terms, by far the worst-hit country, with nearly 503,000 cases, far ahead of Spain (158,000), Italy (147,000), France (nearly 125,000) and Germany (122,000).* Outbreaks in many other countries are growing fast, particularly those in the UK and Turkey.
Currently, vast swathes of the planet remain under lockdown. However, in parts of Europe, restrictions are to be eased. Austria and the Czech Republic announced this week that some small shops will soon reopen, while Denmark and Norway plan to resume schooling this month. Even Spain, one of the hardest-hit countries in the world, will allow some non-essential workers to return to their jobs from Monday; and Italy, which has the highest death toll in the world, will on Tuesday reopen some shops.
Each week, the need to regain a semblance of normality grows more urgent, as economic statistics and projections become ever more mind-bogglingly dire. On Tuesday, the United Nations reported that 81% of the world’s 3.3 billion workers have seen their workplace fully or partially closed. On the same day, the International Labour Organisation forecast that the pandemic threatens the livelihoods of 1.25 billion workers, in the form of wage cuts and job losses. On Thursday, it emerged that another 6.6 million Americans had applied for unemployment benefit in the past seven days, bringing job losses in the country to 16.8 million over three weeks – eight million more, and over a shorter period, than during the 2008 financial crash. That same day, the charity Oxfam predicted that the response to the pandemic could push half a billion people into poverty. If that forecast is borne out, it would be the first rise in global poverty for thirty years.
On Thursday, after marathon talks, which collapsed on Wednesday before resuming a day later, the finance ministers of European Union member states agreed a stimulus package worth €500 billion. However, the European Central Bank had recommended a figure of €1.5 trillion. Moreover, the package did not include so-called coronabonds – a mechanism by which eurozone countries would share debt, easing the burden on already indebted nations. The issue of coronabonds has divided the bloc, with richer northern members, especially the Netherlands, refusing to countenance them.
Giuseppe Conte, the Italian premier, said this week that the EU has “an appointment with history” and that, if it fails to meet the challenge, it may collapse. In the early weeks of the crisis European countries unilaterally closed their borders and hoarded medical supplies. This later changed, as the EU agreed a coordinated border policy, governments donated equipment, and hospitals in Germany, Austria and Luxembourg accepted foreign patients. Nevertheless, it may prove hard to dispel the initial impression that, in the hour of greatest need, European countries abandoned each other. A poll conducted on 12-13 March found that 88% of Italians felt the EU was failing to support them, and 67% saw EU membership as a disadvantage.
While the EU dithered, China and Russia wasted no time in sending supplies to hard-hit areas in Europe and America. Some suspect that the aid comes with conditions, though Conte denies that Russian help was dependent on Italian support for the lifting of sanctions on Moscow. Whatever the true nature of the deal, the global reputation and power of China and Russia is likely to be enhanced after the pandemic.
For now, the shape of the post-pandemic world order is secondary to the unfolding human tragedy. Nothing brought home the scale of the crisis like the footage which emerged on Friday of mass burials in New York City. Paramedics in the city speak of call volumes akin to the September 11 terrorist attacks, day after day. Elsewhere, there are signs of hope, as the daily death tolls in Italy and Spain continue to fall: Spain reported 605 deaths on 10 April, down from 950 on the 2nd. In both countries there is cautious hope that they have passed the peak of the epidemic.
One aspect of the disease that has come to light this week is the way it particularly affects minorities. African-Americans have suffered 70% of Chicago’s coronavirus cases, yet they make up only 30% of the population; New York, Detroit and New Orleans have reported a similar phenomenon. This disparity may be down to a number of factors, including lower average incomes among ethnic minorities, many of whom are key workers.
Even if characterisations of the virus as ‘the great leveller’ are misplaced, one event this week has shown that it threatens everybody. On Sunday, the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, was admitted to hospital. Ten days prior, he had tested positive for coronavirus, however his symptoms, including a cough and temperature, continued to worsen. Only one day after hospitalisation, Johnson entered intensive care. While he was not dependent on a ventilator, the prime minister was provided with oxygen. He has since begun to recover, has left the ICU, and is said to be walking around. Speaking to his friends, the Prime Minister has since declared that he owes NHS staff his life.
On the evening of Johnson’s admission, the Queen gave a rare address to the nation. “We should take comfort,” she said, “that while we may have more still to endure, better days will return. We will be with our friends again; we will be with our families again; we will meet again.”
*Statistics taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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