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Oliver Lamb provides the weekly COVID-19 briefing, describing how people across the globe are coping with strict lockdown measures. This article follows the pattern in coronavirus cases, and discusses some of the more unique approaches taken by world leaders.
The coronavirus pandemic continues to spread. At the beginning of Saturday 28 March, global confirmed cases stood at 596,000 with 27,000 deaths. A week later the equivalent figures were 1,116,000 and 59,000. The United States has by far the highest case count, at 277,000; it is followed by Italy and Spain (both over 119,000), Germany (91,000) and France (82,000). China remains stable with over 81,000*.The true case count is bound to be many times higher.
There is good news from some countries, though, as the infection rates in Spain and Italy appear to have slowed. Both countries are among those to have imposed a self-isolation order, under which citizens may leave their homes only for essential purposes.
Yet, in Italy, which has been in lockdown since 9 March, there are signs of brewing social unrest. As businesses close, and lay off employees, some people are going hungry. There are long queues at food banks, shopkeepers are being pressured to give out food for free, and police are patrolling supermarkets to prevent thefts. Criminal organisations are hoping to exploit the situation, as authorities fear that the Mafia will recruit the unemployed, and the desperate. Deprivation is most acute in the poorer south of Italy. On Saturday, the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, announced that €400 million would be distributed to mayors, for conversion into food stamps. However, the mayors have protested that this is not enough.
Conte has warned that, unless there is massive aid to help countries badly hit by the virus, the coming months would see a rise in nationalism and Euroscepticism. However, an appeal by nine EU countries, including Italy, to allow borrowing through ‘coronabonds’ has been rejected by the bloc’s richer northern members, including Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria.
Italy’s measures are a week or two ahead of other Western countries’. However, there are already signs that the lockdowns are having similarly disastrous economic fallout. Food banks in the United States are reporting an upsurge in demand – roughly 50-150% more than the same time last year, but some banks are receiving more than eight times more visitors. A third of these people have never gone to a food bank before. On Thursday, it was revealed that, over the past week, 6.6 million Americans had applied for unemployment benefit. Other Western countries reported proportionally similar jumps in joblessness. Many economists now expect the global economy to suffer its sharpest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The regulations are affecting society in less publicised ways too. In nations from Brazil, to Germany, to China, confinement to homes has led to a sharp rise in domestic violence against women and children. Campaigners across the globe have called for governments to address the issue; Mandu Reid, the leader of the Women’s Equality Party in the UK, has demanded special police powers to evict abusers during the lockdown.
Self-isolation has also hit mental health. Experts predict a rise in depression, anxiety and even post-traumatic stress disorder. The loss of school and work routines will also take its toll, as will loneliness.
However, the shutting down of large sectors of the economy has been a boon for the environment. You will no doubt have seen the striking images of air pollution before and after the lockdowns in China, Italy and other countries.
Similarly, water pollution has dropped; the canals of Venice are clear. In many places, wildlife numbers are expected to surge, as the flow of visitors to the countryside dries up.
Nevertheless, governments are keen to ease the lockdowns. The trouble is that this risks a second wave of infections. The lockdown in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began, is due to be partially lifted on 8 April, but residents have been warned to stay at home, and remain vigilant. On Tuesday, the World Health Organisation warned that the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region is “far from over”.
There are few safe routes out self-isolation. One is to continue to impose measures, until a vaccine becomes widely available. Around 35 companies and academic institutions are working separately on this, and a vaccine produced by the biotech firm Moderna will soon begin human trials. However, it is likely to be at least 18 months before a vaccine is even approved for use, let alone be widely available. Given the unrest developing already in Italy, it is doubtful that a lockdown could be sustained that long.
A much more likely escape route is testing. This comes in two forms: antigen, which tells you whether you are currently infected, and antibody, which tells you whether you have been infected. The latter in particular has the potential to be a game-changer, as those who have acquired immunity can return to their work, allowing the quarantine progressively to be lifted, and the economy to begin returning to "normal".
The alternative is to not impose a lockdown in the first place. This is the strategy pursued by Sweden. The elderly and vulnerable are confined to their homes and gatherings of 50 or more are banned, but otherwise life continues as normal. Public support for the light-touch response is high. Yet, scientists are divided. Some argue that tighter restrictions are unsustainable and, in the long run possibly counter-productive; others fear that Sweden is heading for catastrophe.
Certain world leaders, however, are loath to waste a lockdown. On Monday, the Hungarian Parliament passed a bill allowing the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to rule by decree. In addition, the spreading of misinformation now carries a jail sentence of up to five years. The measures will last indefinitely. Given that Orbán in 2014 openly proclaimed his intent to turn Hungary into an ‘illiberal democracy’, it is difficult not to suspect that he is using the virus as a pretext to expand his powers and silence his critics. Elizabeth Bratton has the full story here.
Other authoritarian leaders barely acknowledge the pandemic. President Lukashenko of Belarus recommends an eclectic set of cures, including vodka, saunas and tractors. “The tractor will heal everyone,” he opined sagely. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov of Turkmenistan suggests inhaling smoke from a desert plant called Peganum harmala.
Whatever you do, do not drink methanol. Hundreds in Iran have died after it was claimed that the toxic substance cures coronavirus. Fake news is older than COVID-19, and spreads just as quickly.
*Statistics taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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