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Oliver Lamb updates readers on the constantly-evolving state of affairs. This article discusses the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19, and explores the effectiveness of varying approaches taken to defeat it. While strict measures have been largely effective across the globe, those who feel neglected by their governments are taking to the streets to express their rage and their desperation.
Ambulances turned away by hospitals. Patients left untreated in emergency wards. This is not the case in northern Italy but rather Japan, a country that, until recently, thought it had contained its coronavirus outbreak. Despite being the second country in the world to confirm a case of COVID-19, the government failed to secure sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) for hospital staff, was reluctant to impose restrictions for fear of harming the economy, and called mass testing a “waste of resources”. Now doctors warn that the health system could collapse under the weight of a surge in cases.
And Japan still has only 12,000 confirmed cases. The United States is far ahead, having reported 925,000 cases, including 52,000 deaths. The UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain all have between 143,000 and 219,000 each. Many other nations including Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Belgium, Canada and the Netherlands have tens of thousands of cases and counting. The true numbers are bound to be many times higher.*
Japan is not the only East Asian country to experience a spike in cases. Singapore, which had been held up as a model of test-and-trace containment, has seen thousands of new infections in recent days. Most are among migrant workers who are housed in crowded dormitories where social distancing is impossible. Meanwhile Harbin, a city of ten million on China’s northern border, was quarantined on Wednesday after authorities detected a cluster of cases, thought to be have been sparked by a returnee from New York City. Cases imported from across the Russian border have caused alarm in the same region. It was in the Chinese city of Wuhan that coronavirus originated, and the country is now focused on preventing a second wave.
Chinese officials’ secrecy during the early weeks of the outbreak has come under fire. On Wednesday, the US state of Missouri went to far as to sue the Chinese government for the “enormous death, suffering and economic losses they inflicted on the world”. The state’s attorney general, Eric Schmitt, accused China of lying about the virus and doing little to prevent its spread. However, the lawsuit is widely seen as a stunt rather than a serious legal challenge.
On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil plunged into negative territory for the first time, as the economic slowdown is such that there is insufficient storage space for unused oil. On Thursday, the number of Americans made jobless by the crisis exceeded 26 million. That same day Congress passed a rescue package worth $484 billion, which will support small businesses as well as fund hospitals and testing. Elsewhere in the world, lockdowns threaten to become full-blown humanitarian disasters. This week the United Nations warned that the number of people facing acute food insecurity may almost double this year to 265 million. The organisation’s World Food Programme warned of ‘biblical’ famines, particularly in regions already affected by conflict, economic crisis and climate change, unless the world takes rapid action.
It may come as no surprise that protests over lockdowns are growing. Thousands of Americans in almost twenty states have taken to the streets to demand that restrictions are lifted; some fear the economic impact, while others simply want their freedom back. Confronting the protesters were masked and uniformed healthcare workers, who blocked demonstrators’ cars.
Meanwhile, on Monday, in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz, riot police were called in to disperse a protest against restrictions. There have also been demonstrations in Brazil, one of which was attended by President Bolsonaro himself. Bolsonaro has called for the easing of lockdowns imposed by state governors. Elsewhere in the world, protests have been fuelled by desperation: food shortages have led to riots in South Africa and clashes with police in Delhi, and residents of Bogotá, Colombia, blocked roads in protest against the authorities’ failure to deliver the food parcels they desperately need to survive.
US states Georgia, Oklahoma, and Alaska have joined the list of places allowing shops and services to reopen. On Thursday South Africa also announced that it would ease its harshest restrictions from 1 May. The lockdown has saved the country from the horrors seen in Europe and New York; it has only a few thousand cases.
However, all countries emerging, blinking, into the metaphorical sunlight must take care not to allow the virus to rebound. By protecting most of their populations from infection, governments have increased the potential severity of any second wave. The one sure way to defeat COVID-19 is to develop a vaccine. Numerous candidates around the world are now in human trials, and, on Friday, world leaders launched a programme to speed up the development, production and distribution of a vaccine. A viable option is not expected to be ready before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the medical battle continues. Governments in many countries are struggling to obtain enough personal protective equipment (PPE) for their health workers. Fashion firms are producing masks and gowns, and manufacturers churning out ventilators, but supply cannot keep up with demand. Shortages have been exacerbated by a protectionist approach; the United States and the European Union, among others, have restricted the export of essential supplies. This may be particularly disastrous for poorer countries such as Jamaica, 93% of whose respirators come from America. At the same time, protection for the public is a matter of debate. Although face masks do not defend against infection, they can prevent virus-carriers from spreading the disease. Several countries and regions have recommended wearing them. However, others worry that, if members of the become public complacent, masks will actually help the virus spread.
On Tuesday, President Trump returned to one of the earliest containment measures: he announced a plan to temporarily ban all immigration into the United States. His defenders argued that this would enable more Americans to return to their jobs once the crisis ends. Others denounced the move as “xenophobic scapegoating”.
Yet, amid the health crisis, economic slump and protests, this week produced at least one piece of good news, as the number of active cases in Italy dropped for the first time. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
*statistics taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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