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Oliver Lamb explains the outcomes of the World Health Conference, as China finally agrees to launch an official investigation into the origins of COVID-19. While the virus begins to slow in Europe and North America, the citizens of Latin America are seeing deaths rise at an alarming rate. This article explores the financial implications of prolonged lockdowns, while also discussing the treatment of migrant workers in India.
The first virtual World Health Conference, which took place over Monday and Tuesday this week, began smoothly enough. However, it did not take long for it to become mired in international tensions and finger-pointing. President Trump accused the World Health Organization of being in thrall to China, and gave it 30 days to commit to reforms; if it does not, the United States will permanently end its funding of WHO, and possibly leave the organisation. However, there was one piece of good news, as China acceded to the demand of more than 120 nations for an international inquiry into the origins of coronavirus. It had previously dismissed the notion as premature at best, and unhelpful politicking at worst.
As world leaders quarrelled, the virus continued to spread. At the beginning of Saturday 16 May, the global confirmed case count stood at 4,621,000 cases with 308,000 deaths. Seven days later those numbers had risen to 5,298,000 and 339,000. The true numbers are bound to be far higher.
Since January, the epicentre of the pandemic has moved westwards from China to Europe to the United States. Now it is turning southwards to Latin America. Outbreaks in Mexico (59,000 confirmed cases), Chile (62,000 cases), Peru (111,000) and Brazil (331,000) are spreading rapidly.* The death tolls are stacking up too, and the low testing rates compared to Europe and America mean that many more deaths are likely going undiagnosed. Brazil, for instance, has conducted 3462 tests per million people: less than a tenth of the number the US has completed. Many fear health systems will be overwhelmed, as has already happened in Ecuador. Additionally, 90% of intensive care beds in Chile’s capital, Santiago, are occupied.
What’s more, as the pandemic slows in Europe and plateaus in the US, it is accelerating in Latin America. Daily death charts show an upward curve. Experts say the peak is several weeks away. Deaths are doubling every two weeks in Brazil, Peru and Mexico, compared to two months in the US and UK and longer elsewhere in Europe. Lockdowns have been imposed across Latin America. Yet, even as the virus continues to spread, some measures are being eased. On Monday, Mexico allowed certain sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, construction and mining, to begin to return to work under social distancing guidelines.
Brazil too would be lifting restrictions if its president, Jair Bolsonaro, got his way – indeed they would never have been imposed in the first place. Bolsonaro’s opposition to lockdown puts him in the minority among world leaders, but he expresses the views of millions who have more to fear from poverty than from the virus. Worldwide, hundreds of millions are unemployed and many face food insecurity. That is bad enough for those in rich countries with generous welfare states, but, for many in poorer countries, the situation is desperate. On Tuesday, the World Bank warned that the pandemic may push 60 million people into extreme poverty, which is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day.
The result may be social strife. When India went into lockdown on 25 March, millions of migrant workers found themselves stranded far from home with no income and no food supply – for them or for their distant families. Relief efforts were ineffective. Almost two months later, and despite the government’s provision of transport, some workers are still walking hundreds of miles back home. Meanwhile, several states have suspended labour laws in order to stimulate the economy. In response, ten Indian trade unions organised a nationwide strike on Thursday to protest the measures and to demand immediate relief for migrant workers.
On Monday, in order to alleviate the economic impact of coronavirus in Europe, President Macron of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany made a joint proposal for a rescue fund worth €500 billion. It would be given to the hardest-hit European Union countries, who would not have to pay the money back. The 27 EU heads of state or government will debate the proposal next month.
As the economy receives intensive care, the search for a vaccine or treatment continues. On Monday, President Trump revealed that he is taking hydroxychloroquine, a drug that is used to treat malaria but whose efficacy for COVID-19 sufferers is unproven. Scientists warn that it may cause an irregular heartbeat, even death.
A different medicine was prescribed by the WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, during the World Health Conference. “Let our shared humanity,” he said, “be the antidote to our shared threat.” So far, real-world testing has delivered decidedly mixed results.
*statistics taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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