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Oliver Lamb explores the social repercussions of COVID-19 across the globe, and discusses different governmental approaches to tackling the virus, including strict lockdowns, travel bans, and tracing. This article acknowledges the positive developments made as cases are reduced in China, but delves further into the potentially catastrophic economic aftermath.
“Nous sommes en guerre,” President Macron told the French people in a televised address on Monday. We are at war.
Even as China declares victory over coronavirus – with perhaps more confidence than is justified – the rest of the world is preparing for battle or already in the heat of it. At the beginning of Saturday 14 March, worldwide confirmed cases stood at 137,000 with 5000 deaths. A week later those figures had soared to 275,000 and 11,000. China remains the worst-hit country with nearly 81,000 cases, but Italy (47,000), Spain (21,000), Germany, Iran, the USA (all over 19,000) and France (12,000) are quickly catching up. The true case count is bound to be many times higher. *
However, those figures barely scratch the surface of the pandemic’s impact. Country by country, step by step, the world is shutting down. The day after Macron’s address, his government deployed more than 100,000 police officers to enforce a nationwide quarantine. Citizens may venture outside their homes, only when absolutely necessary: to buy supplies, to seek medical care, to go to work – and then only if working from home is impossible. Between the quarantine’s announcement and its coming into effect, thousands of Parisians fled the city by train or car, preferring to be stuck inside in the countryside rather than in the city. Country folk worry that the exodus will hasten the spread of the virus.
A similar quarantine system had already been in place in Spain since Saturday. It is a mark of the escalating severity of the crisis that, less than two weeks after Italy imposed a lockdown unprecedented in a liberal democracy, the Spanish and French quarantines have barely made the headlines outside those two countries.
Many other countries have enacted less draconian lockdowns. Nearly a billion children in over 100 countries are off school. Countless governments have shut non-essential shops, eating places, entertainment venues and places of worship. In still more countries this is advisory, although businesses who close voluntarily are left unable to claim insurance for loss of income. Those who show symptoms of the virus are being asked to self-quarantine. Another common measure is restrictions on the size of gatherings; the strictest of these is in Switzerland, where the limit is set at five people.
Mass-gathering restrictions can count among their victims a number of high-profile sport and entertainment events. This week’s biggest announcement on this front was the Euro 2020 football tournament, now postponed to 2021. The Eurovision Song Contest has also been cancelled, proving that every cloud really does have a silver lining.
If such shutdowns are to have an effect in slowing the pandemic, they need to be complied with. In the West this is proving easier said than done. Young people in at least a dozen countries have been told to stop partying. In Germany, which has shut down but where people are not yet confined to their homes, police have been breaking up so-called ‘corona speakeasies’, and Berlin police alone have closed over 60 clubs and bars. On Wednesday Italy revealed that authorities have charged 43,000 people with violating the quarantine that came into force nationwide on 9 March. And on Thursday it emerged that over 4000 French citizens had received fines since Wednesday morning for violating the quarantine.
Shutdowns and quarantines will only get harder to enforce. Videos of Italians singing to each other from their balconies have gone viral on the internet, but it remains to be seen whether the camaraderie and good spirits can survive weeks and months of confinement.
Paradoxically, however, the pandemic is forcing a loosening of rules in other areas of life. For example, competition laws in the UK have been relaxed so that supermarkets can work together to ensure a secure food supply. Meanwhile, plans have been drawn up for the police force, should officers fall sick, to focus only on serious crimes.
On Tuesday Iran, whose regime is far from known for its liberal attitude to law and order, temporarily released 85,000 prisoners with sentences of less than five years in order to stop the virus spreading in prisons.
Iran’s outbreak is on a par with the worst in Europe and its government is vastly more authoritarian, yet restrictions there have been relatively light. On Friday, the first day of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, large crowds of people were milling around on the streets of Tehran. It was in stark contrast to Europe’s almost deserted cities.
Of course, the million-dollar question – and the million-lives question – is whether the European lockdowns can stop the pandemic. The Italian quarantine, which was initially restricted to the north, was extended to the rest of the country after cases rose by nearly 1500 in a single day. On Friday Italy reported almost 6000 new cases. But, given that the quarantine was only expected to have a noticeable effect after up to two weeks, we may yet soon see a fall in the number of new cases.
In China, where the virus originated, draconian measures appear to have been successful. On Thursday and Friday the country reported no new domestic cases. In Wuhan, ground zero of the epidemic, people have been allowed out of their homes for the first time since the lockdown began on 23 January, and markets are beginning to reopen.
South Korea’s aggressive programme of testing, contact tracing and social distancing has brought its epidemic, once the worst in the world after China’s, under control. Japan has seen similar success. These countries’ biggest concern is now a second wave brought by travellers from abroad.
Countries which are yet to be significantly impacted are already preparing for the virus. At midnight on Thursday, Argentina imposed a quarantine similar to those in Italy, Spain and France. Milder restrictions are in place across South America and Africa.
The real fear is what will happen if and when the pandemic hits poorer countries whose healthcare systems cannot cope. Although China’s experience suggests that at least 80% of cases are mild, a sizeable proportion require hospitalisation, and some need intensive care. When a health system is overwhelmed, the death rate rises. And cases are rising in developing countries: Africa had 850 cases by the end of Friday: a sixfold increase in the space of a week.
Even the best health systems in wealthy countries are simply not equipped for a surge in cases. Italian doctors are having to decide who lives and who dies. On Tuesday, Lombardy, the country’s worst-hit region, ran out of intensive care beds. On Thursday, trucks queued in Bergamo to transport coffins from the city’s overflowing morgue. The obituary section in the local newspaper was one and a half pages long on 9 February; on the 13th of March, it was ten pages.
Given the grim scenes playing out across even a rich nation like Italy, it is no surprise that activity is grinding to a halt not only within countries, but between them. On Tuesday the European Union closed its borders to all but EU nationals, permanent residents of the EU, health workers, goods transporters, and diplomats. The move followed a series of border closures within the EU, which European leaders agreed should be reversed. Meanwhile, over 80 countries have banned entry for people from affected nations, or required them to quarantine. Some countries have completely shut their borders.
The extraordinary measures described thus far may yet defeat the virus, but only at huge economic cost. As businesses are shut indefinitely, their cashflow dries up; their only hope of survival is to lay off workers, or go bust and put their employees out of work anyway. Small businesses are particularly vulnerable. Defined in the UK as a business with fewer than 50 employees, they employ 16.6 million people in the UK and turn over £2.2 trillion between them. A report last week found that because of coronavirus, 69% of them are facing “significant pressures” on their cash levels. The UN has warned that the pandemic could put 25 million people out of work worldwide, and sharply reduce incomes. Nearly one in five American families have already experienced a layoff or wage cut.
Large businesses, too, are feeling the pain. This week global stock markets continued to slide, having crashed since late February. Unsurprisingly the aviation industry has been the hardest-hit. Many countries expect a severe recession: Capital Economics predicts the British economy could shrink by up to 20% in the second quarter. That would be more than three times the hit sustained during the recession of 2007-09, the worst economic slump since the Second World War.
To keep their economies afloat governments are ripping up the free-market orthodoxy. On Sunday the US Federal Reserve reduced interest rates to 0-0.25%, matching the record low set during the 2008 crash. The same day it released a stimulus package worth $700 billion. On Wednesday the European Central Bank released an $820 billion package. Numerous other countries have done similar. Most remarkably, several governments have agreed to pay the wages of those whom the pandemic has rendered unable to work – a measure not seen even in wartime.
“These are times of extraordinary difficulty,” Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, said on Saturday. “When this is over, we will be able to return to the streets and the terraces, to our work routines. We will visit friends and loved ones and take our children to the park… But until that moment comes, we will not lose our way.”
*Statistics per country taken from www.worldometers.info