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Oliver Lamb reveals the latest coronavirus statistics, and discusses what they mean for different areas of the world. This article explores Trump's decision to withdraw funding from the World Health Organization, and follows other world leaders' responses to China's handling of the pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic continues to spread. At the start of Saturday 11 April, global confirmed cases stood at nearly 1,699,000 with 102,000 deaths. Seven days later, those numbers had risen to 2,248,000 and 154,000. The United States has nearly a third of cases, with over 709,000, far ahead of Spain (190,000), Italy (172,000), France (nearly 148,000) and Germany (141,000).* The virus is also spreading rapidly in nations as diverse as the UK, Turkey, Brazil and Russia. However, confirmed cases depend on a country’s testing capacity, and the true numbers are bound to be many times higher.
There are signs, however, that the pandemic is slowing in Europe, as the continent’s two hardest-hit countries, Italy and Spain, report a downward trend in new cases and deaths, and hospital cases continue to fall. Experts believe the panidemic in the UK is nearing its peak. On Friday, the German health minister, Jens Spahn, said that the country’s outbreak was under control. Germany has suffered far fewer deaths than its neighbours – below 4500, compared to around 20,000 in Italy, Spain and France. The low death rate has been attributed to an extensive regime of testing and contact tracing.
Germany is among the countries to ease its lockdown. On Wednesday, Angela Merkel, the Chancellor, announced that small shops could reopen from next week, and schools will begin to follow from 4 May. Other countries have already loosened restrictions, including Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark. Even Spain allowed some workers to return to their jobs on Monday, and some parts of Italy have reopened certain shops.
On the other hand, France, India and the UK are among those to extend their lockdowns to early May. However, there is growing controversy over whether the cure is more damaging than the disease. The United States has seen a spate of right-wing protests against state lockdowns. The movement began with a huge rally in Michigan on Wednesday, and has since won the support of President Trump. On Friday, Trump unveiled guidance for state governors on how to lift their lockdowns. According to the document, the process should consist of three phases, each lasting at least two weeks. In a press conference on Monday, Trump had claimed “total authority” to lift lockdowns across the United States, a notion that was quickly shot down by constitutional experts and state governors.
The President does, however, have the power to halt his country’s funding of the World Health Organisation, which he did on Wednesday. The United States’ annual contribution of up to $500 million is the largest of any nation. Trump pointed to the WHO’s “role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus”, as well as its deference to China. However, Trump’s move has met with widespread condemnation, and accusations that he is trying to distract from his own administration’s failures in containing the virus.
Nevertheless, there are legitimate questions over the actions of the WHO and China in the early stages of the outbreak. The WHO only acknowledged in late January, after China did likewise, that the virus is transmissible between humans. The Chinese government has been accused of covering up the extent of the spread. On Thursday, Dominic Raab, who is deputising for Boris Johnson while the British prime minister recovers from his personal coronavirus ordeal, said that China will face “hard questions” once the pandemic is over. On the same day, President Macron of France cast doubt on China’s suspiciously low case and death figures.
China denies any cover-up. On Friday, however, the death toll in Wuhan, the city where the virus originated, was revised from 2579 to 3869, and 325 previously uncounted cases were added to the official numbers.
Communist Party statisticians clearly wanted to get the bad news over with, because, on Friday they also revealed that the Chinese economy had shrunk by 6.8% in the first three months of 2020. That marks the first contraction since records began. With the lockdown in Wuhan now over, businesses are now reopening – but approximately 20% of China’s economy relies on exports, which will struggle to find a market with much of the world still in lockdown.
Statistics foreshadow an even sharper hit to Western economies. On Thursday, we heard the latest unemployment figures from the US: 5.2 million in the past seven days, bringing the total to 22 million over four weeks. Food banks are overwhelmed, as those at the back of enormous queues sometimes leave empty-handed.
It is in poorer countries without an adequate welfare system that the human impacts of lockdowns are likely to be most acute. The G20 helped alleviate this on Wednesday when they temporarily suspended debt payments owed to them by 77 developing countries. However, the developing world is still underprepared for the pandemic. In Africa there are around only five intensive care beds per million people. On Wednesday, the United Nations said that 74 million people in the Arab region are at greater risk of contracting the virus because they lack access to handwashing facilities.
*statistics taken from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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