The Chesham and Amersham By-Election: A Watershed Moment or a Red Herring?

Last Thursday, the Liberal Democrats pulled off a stunning by-election upset in Chesham and Amersham. Since its creation in 1974, the Buckinghamshire constituency has been the safest of Conservative seats, but Lib Dem candidate Sarah Green won 56.7% of the vote to overturn a Tory majority of 16,000.

Just the previous month, the Conservatives were celebrating victory in a by-election in Hartlepool. The constituency and its predecessor had voted Labour since 1945. In taking it the Conservatives pulled another brick from what remains of Labour’s ‘red wall’ – the northern constituencies that used to form the core of the party’s support. However, the Chesham result suggests that this remarkable reversal in the British political order may be coming back to haunt the Tories.

credit: sarahgreen.org.uk

In the past, the equation was simple. If you were middle- or upper-class, you voted Conservative. If you were working-class, you voted Labour. But, under Tony Blair, Labour shifted to the right in an effort to court businesses and the middle classes, reasoning that their working-class base had nowhere else to go. It worked; in 1997, the party won a huge majority.

But northern working-class communities that had been ravaged by deindustrialisation under Thatcher (1979-90) now felt neglected by a Labour government that embraced most of Thatcher’s free market philosophy. On top of this, many felt, rightly or wrongly, that Labour politicians no longer shared their social views.

No issue caused greater controversy than immigration. In 2004, Blair opened Britain’s doors to eight Eastern European countries, resulting in an influx of an estimated 1.5 million immigrants between May 2004 and September 2009. It was this that exercised lifelong Labour voter Gillian Duffy of Rochdale, when, during the 2010 general election campaign, she met Gordon Brown: Blair’s successor as Labour leader and prime minister. Brown was later recorded calling Duffy a “bigoted woman”, for which he apologised. ‘Bigotgate’ contributed to Brown’s defeat in that election. In retrospect, it was an early signal of the disconnect between the progressive values of Labour politicians, and the concerns of their working-class base.

That disconnect burst to the forefront in 2016. Labour backed Remain in that year’s referendum on European Union membership, but its northern heartlands were key to the victory of the Leave campaign. Numerous commentators argued that the result was less a rejection of the EU than a revolt against the so-called ‘liberal elite’ and their values. Indeed, in one poll, a third of Leave voters said their main motivation was controlling immigration.

Three years later, continued political paralysis over Brexit produced another election. The Conservatives, now led by Boris Johnson, ran on the promise to “Get Brexit Done”. Set against Labour’s prevarication on the issue, it was enough to swing dozens of ‘red wall’ seats to the Tories. But many analysts argued that the result was about more than Brexit. It seemed that Johnson had identified a gap in the political market for a socially conservative but economically interventionist party; a key plank of the election-winning platform had been a pledge to “level up” those neglected northern working-class communities. In essence, Johnson took the same gamble that Blair had 22 years previously, but in reverse: he courted the working classes, reasoning that his middle-class base had nowhere else to go.

But the Chesham and Amersham by-election suggests that they do have somewhere else to go: the arms of the Lib Dems. In lavishing attention upon the north, the Conservatives risk alienating their southern heartlands. A common complaint on the doorstep during the by-election campaign was that the Conservatives were no longer listening, that they were taking their vote for granted. After this, they certainly will no longer do so.

The Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, referred to the Conservatives’ ‘blue wall’ and insisted that his party “can knock it down”. During the victory celebrations, he ceremonially took an orange hammer to a wall made of blue boxes.

credit: The Mirror

Johnson admitted that it was “a disappointing result”, but argued that “particular circumstances” were involved. Local issues did indeed play their part. Chiefly, residents cite the disruption caused by the ongoing HS2 railway project, which Sarah Green campaigned against. In a similar vein, constituents complain about the housebuilding spree taking place across rural Buckinghamshire thanks to government planning reforms. This would not be the first time the Lib Dems have won a by-election on local issues only to lose the seat come the next general election.

However, Davey argues that Lib Dem gains across the south in last month’s council elections show that the result is part of a trend.

Even if this is a one-off, southern Tory MPs will now fear for their jobs and Johnson will find it even harder to ignore their voices in favour of the 2019 intake of MPs representing former red wall seats. In particular, as one commuter belt MP said, “There is absolutely no way we will let [further planning reforms] go through.”

And if the by-election does herald the beginning of the end of the blue wall, then the entire Johnson project is at risk.

Trouble for Labour

Whatever the implications for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, this is a dreadful result for Labour. From 7166 in 2019, the party’s vote tally in Chesham and Amersham plummeted to just 622.

Partly, this is thanks to tactical voting by Labour supporters, who, knowing their party had no chance of winning, cast their ballot for the Lib Dems. Ed Davey has ruled out a formal alliance with Labour, whereby each would stand aside in constituencies where the other has a greater chance of winning. He argues that such an arrangement might turn away potential Tory defectors.

Modest Labour gains across the south of England in last month’s council elections raised hopes in the party that the loss of its red wall seats might be partly offset by making inroads into the Conservatives’ own ‘blue wall’. But if the Chesham and Amersham result really does signify a realignment of British politics, it seems to be a realignment that places the Lib Dems as the Conservatives’ main rivals in the south. Labour risks being frozen out.

Of course, it is highly unlikely that the Lib Dems, who have failed to win more than twelve seats in any of the last three general elections, will overnight displace Labour, one of the two major parties. But Chesham and Amersham is another headache for the Labour leader Keir Starmer ahead of July’s Batley and Spen by-election, which some commentators believe is a must-win if he is to avoid a leadership challenge within the party. Labour holds the seat, but the Conservative Ryan Stephenson currently leads in the polls.