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Since the formation of the Fifth Republic of France under Charles De Gaulle in 1958, the French presidency has been dominated by socialist and conservative factions, with mainstream parties like the centre-left Parti Socialiste and the centre-right Les Républicains having a firm grip on power. However, in recent elections, there has been a power shift, with incumbent president Emmanuel Macron being elected under a newly formed party, La République En Marche!. His main opponent is far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National.
First elected in 2017, President Macron entered the office as the youngest president in French history and a relative newcomer in French politics, only holding the position of Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs before this in the cabinet of former president François Hollande. The party was founded in April 2016 by Mr. Macron, depicting itself as a pro-European and liberal party, with the president now being seen as one of the key players calling for increased European Union integration. Despite the party’s youth on a national scale, LREM managed to win the presidency in the second round with 66.1% of the vote against Macron’s challenger Marine Le Pen.
Despite Macron’s success, his term has been marred with personal and national crises. A notable national crisis came in the form of the Gilets Jaunes movement: a movement that started with business woman Priscilla Ludosky’s petition to combat the high price of petrol in the country. This sparked unprecedented protests in France and around the world, forcing president Macron to rip up key reforms. The protests lasted for over 2 years, as demonstrators fought against a rise in crude oil prices, immigration, and class conflict. Ultimately, this forced Macron to make concessions, abolishing the fuel tax, and announcing a €100 increase in social minima for employees. The symbol of the yellow vests used in these protests stems from the French law that requires motorists to keep a high-visibility garment in case of emergencies, however it means more than that to these protesters, as they are symbolic of a “unifying thread and [a] call to arms”.
Another issue that rocked Macron’s presidency was terrorism. Attacks such as the 2018 Strasbourg Attack, where a gunman fired at a christmas market leaving 5 dead, have had an adverse effect on the way the people of France look to Macron for leadership, increasing calls to harden immigration and security laws. Some believe these calls have manifested themselves as attacks on foreign-born French citizens; moves such as the controversial immigration law which shortens asylum seekers’ application deadlines have come under fire.
Macron’s moves are still perceived as insufficient for France’s far-right population, making space for Marine Le Pen’s hardline actions. Le Pen has spent the past decade criticising islam in France and is now going as far to state that she supports “putting a stop to immigration”, reinforcing her “France first” rhetoric.
The Rassemblement National (Formerly known as the National Front) is headed by Miss Le Pen. First formed in 1972 by Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party is seen as the main right-wing party in France, standing for Euroscepticism and anti-immigration. However, Mr. Le Pen is seen as a controversial figure in the party. Nicknamed the “Devil of the republic”, his homophobia and Holocaust denial led to his dismissal by daughter, Marine Le Pen, after her takeover in 2011, in her efforts to revamp the party for the new age. By changing the party name and softening on some contentious issues, many believe that 2022 could be Le Pen’s year.
Many attribute Marine Le Pen’s loss in the 2017 presidential election to her hard stances on the EU, instead she has now softened on this issue. Leaving behind so-called “Frexit”, Miss Le Pen is now focusing on reforming the EU to fit her vision of a Europe of nation states. She is also looking to bring the environment into her campaign by stating she would like to see Europe become the “world's leading ecological civilisation”. This is a stark contrast to her father’s way of governance, as he regularly denied the role of human-driven climate change.
In France, a two-round voting system is used to elect a president. If a candidate receives over 50% of votes cast, they are elected president with no second round. If no candidate receives an overall majority, then a second round of voting begins with the top two candidates from round one which happens two weeks after the first round of voting takes place. Many people have a problem with this, as it doesn’t protect against extremist candidates. An example of this is in 2017, as Marine Le Pen secured her place in the second round by only 1.3% of the vote, beating François Fillon of Les Républicains. A hypothetical poll by IFOP shows that Macron would still beat Fillon, but by a much smaller margin, with just 52% of the votes.
The question now is: who will win? According to polling sources, Macron is set to be the frontrunner in the first round of voting, with the most recent poll showing him at 31%. Marine Le Pen is the second most popular in the first round, receiving 24% of the votes. Despite the 7% difference between the two leading candidates, it’s unlikely that Marine Le Pen will be thrown from second place with the third most popular, Laurent Wauquiez of Les Républicains, who was projected to win 13% of the votes in this poll by OpinionWay.
The most recent poll by Elabe shows Macron maintaining his lead over Le Pen, with 60% of the vote, leaving Le Pen with 40%. This lead over Le Pen may seem significant, however, if this poll is the actual outcome, it still shows Macron performing 6% worse than he did against Miss Le Pen in 2017. Not a single poll has predicted a Le Pen victory.
With the election due to take place on April 10, 2022, a lot could change for both sides. As Emmanuel Macron has managed the coronavirus pandemic and the terrorism risk in France, his majority over Le Pen could be destroyed. The importance of this election cannot be denied.