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Originally postponed in October, Argentina's legislative election finally took place this November, with momentous results potentially signalling the need for radical change for the largest Spanish-speaking country in the world*.
The Frente Todos (translated as ‘Everyone’s Front’) coalition suffered a dramatic loss in the midterm election, with a conservative opposition essentially eliminating the coalition in congressional battles around the country. Todos eventually lost six seats in the Senate and two seats in the Chamber of Deputies. This coalition is the combination of Peronist and Kirchnerist parties, creating a group rooted in social democracy and Latin American values. These devastating losses for the centre-left group in every critical election, along with losing majorities in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, were interpreted as strong anger directed at the poor state of the current Argentine economy. Losing both houses will make it harder for the Todos coalition, with Alberto Fernández leading as president, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as vice president, to pass their agenda and fix the economy.
This is seen by many as strong denunciation over the handling of COVID, its related economic recession, and Argentina’s larger debt problem. In addition, soaring inflation, high poverty, and the perception of corruption have only contributed to the incessant anger directed at the Peronist government.
Many observers attributed the overwhelming defeat to be directly related to the news that Fernández and his deputy de Kirchner had quarrelled in September over initial primary losses, just two months before the election. Publicly, de Kirchner tried to clear herself of any responsibility for the losses, while Fernández pinned the political defeat on de Kirchner’s “pomposity and arrogance”. This public display of chaotic leadership further perpetuated the image that the Todos coalition was incompetent and cared more about politicking than helping the common people. In their respective statements, it appeared that de Kirchner had the power as vice president, not president Fernández.
This also added more credibility to previous speculation that de Kirchner, as a previous president of Argentina who was prevented from running because of her own scandals, may have had more control over Fernández, an outsider who never held elected office, and his policies more than previously acknowledged. De Kirchner has also been subject to scrutiny in the past, as a key witness (and prosecutor) investigating her involvement in a bribery scandal died under questionable circumstances.
This midterm blowout is arguably the result of Argentine leaders' tendency to implement short-term economic policies which, in the long term, force Argentina into more and more debt. Alberto Fernández, like his predecessors, is no exception to this pattern. Manipulating the short-term gains of particular policies to be implemented is a winning strategy when the economy is strong, yet can lead to major degeneration when the economy changes. The paradox is that, although the public punishes long-term economic policies, they will punish the coalition politically if they do not feel the promised economic benefits in a short time span. This can be seen with presidents like Mauricio Macri, when, in 2016, inheriting twin deficits, he argued that borrowing along the adjustment path was feasible because debt was low (yet much of the debt at the time was actually unaccounted for). However, this led to an increase in deficit, and a huge defeat for Macri.
Thus, the public frequently changes its prime minister as neither of the main coalitions (the Todos coalition or the Cambio coalition) are able to maintain a healthy economy over a long period of time. The state of the Argentinian economy is made even worse by the coronavirus pandemic. The economy is currently topping at 52% inflation, ballooning from 36% at the start of this year. In addition, it needs to renegotiate £45 billion debt owed to IMF (the International Monetary Fund) alongside the $65 billion incurred to private lenders. In total, its estimated debt in 2021 is $522.5 billion, with the government having defaulted 9 times already. The real consequences of an economic recession can be viewed from the perspective of human life: Argentina is a country where 41% of the population live in poverty, and they have felt inflation particularly hard, with many unable to purchase basic necessities they would be buying a year ago. Higher government debt likely means that Argentina will continue to have high inflation, low investment, and a weak social safety net.
To put this into context, the US is currently operating at a 6% inflation rate, and many politicians such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz are already concerned, who stated that “food and even the price of diapers are rising, squeezing Americans and especially lower and middle-income households.”
Julián Sanchez, a retail worker, explained that his decision to vote for the Cambio coalition originated from the political chaos ensuing in the Todos coalition; “They’re all fighting against each other rather than trying to solve the disaster they created,” he said. “Everyone I know has trouble getting to the end of the month.”
*by area (click here for more info)